Who opened the border at Ceuta?

In late July, tens of thousands crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, and at least 72 died. Carlos Martinez asks who really opened the border – and why the resulting crisis fitted so neatly into a wider campaign to punish Spain for its independent stance on Palestine, Iran and China.

This article was first published in the Morning Star.

On 30 and 31 July, something in the region of 60,000 Moroccans crossed into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. At least 72 died on the Spanish side of the border, drowned in the Mediterranean or crushed in the attempt. Within days, the great majority had returned to Morocco, many of them voluntarily, on account of Ceuta having no work, food or shelter to offer them.

They were overwhelmingly young, poor and unemployed. “Everyone came because there is no work in Morocco”, one 24-year-old told the New York Times. They were not “invaders”; they were workers looking for work, and dozens of them died for it. They deserve our sympathy and our solidarity.

But this was no ordinary movement of people. Tens of thousands do not converge on one of the world’s most heavily fortified borders in a matter of hours by coincidence. The immediate spark was a flood of online messages falsely claiming that a Spanish Supreme Court ruling meant anyone reaching Ceuta by sea would receive papers and employment. The ruling said no such thing.

Besides, rumours alone do not open a militarised border. The decisive factor was the conduct of the Moroccan state. Its normally formidable border apparatus stopped functioning; the authorities failed to warn Madrid about the online mobilisation; and numerous accounts suggest that Moroccan officers actively encouraged people to cross. Indeed, Spanish intelligence has reportedly concluded that Rabat permitted and exploited the crossing.

There is a precedent. In 2021, Morocco relaxed its border controls and thousands entered Ceuta after Spain admitted Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario Front (Western Sahara’s liberation movement), for medical treatment. Rabat was using desperate people to punish Madrid over Western Sahara.

The provocation this time was very similar. On 20 July, just ten days before the crossing, Pedro Sánchez travelled to Algiers to announce a “new phase” in relations with Algeria, Morocco’s principal regional rival and the main supporter of the Sahrawi struggle for self-determination. Algeria is also Spain’s largest supplier of natural gas this year, giving the rapprochement considerable economic and strategic weight.

Rabat, then, had reasons of its own to open the border. But the resulting crisis fitted seamlessly into a wider campaign against Spain’s increasingly independent foreign policy.

Madrid recognised the Palestinian state in May 2024 and intervened in support of South Africa’s genocide case against Israel. It has described the destruction of Gaza as genocide, imposed an arms embargo, banned imports from illegal settlements and repeatedly called for European sanctions against Israel.

Spain also refused Washington the use of the jointly operated Rota and Morón bases for attacks on Iran, subsequently closing its airspace to US aircraft involved in a war it described as illegal. It was alone within NATO in rejecting Donald Trump’s demand for military spending to rise to 5 percent of GDP. And on China it has been almost alone in Europe in resisting the tariff war, opposing the EU’s duties on Chinese electric vehicles and treating Beijing as a partner rather than a threat. For a medium-sized member state, this is a remarkable degree of insubordination – and it has not gone unpunished.

Washington’s response has been explicit. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain over its refusal to facilitate the attack on Iran. After the Ceuta crossing, he and JD Vance immediately presented the episode as an “invasion” caused by “weak and very liberal laws”, instructing the US right to turn the deaths into a domestic political weapon. Italy’s quasi-fascist prime minister Giorgia Meloni suspended Schengen arrangements with Spain and demanded its expulsion, regardless of the fact that Ceuta and Melilla are not part of the Schengen zone.

The Israeli response was also revealing. Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, used the crisis to taunt Spain over its “colonial enclaves”. Pro-Israel commentators had already advocated a new Moroccan “Green March” into Ceuta and Melilla as a means of punishing Sánchez and strengthening an ally controlling the entrance to the Mediterranean. Such interventions demonstrate how neatly the resulting crisis aligned with the strategic interests of Israel and the United States.

Morocco has been drawn ever more deeply into that system of strategic interests. In December 2020, it normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. The price was US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over occupied Western Sahara, overturning decades of international consensus. Israel followed with its own recognition in 2023, while Israeli drones, air-defence systems and surveillance technology have become pillars of Morocco’s armed forces.

Washington has now begun applying pressure directly to the status of Ceuta and Melilla. In April, a US House appropriations committee described them as cities “under Spanish administration” but “located in Moroccan territory”. This was not the adoption of a new US policy, still less an outbreak of anti-colonial principle. The same administration recognises Morocco’s occupation of Western Sahara and maintains its own colonial possession at Guantánamo Bay – not to mention a global empire of military bases, alliances and client states.

It is of course the case that Ceuta and Melilla are colonial enclaves, relics of the Iberian conquest of North Africa. Like the six counties of the north of Ireland, the Malvinas and the Chagos Islands, they are unfinished business that will eventually have to be settled. But the colonial question must not be reduced to an instrument for disciplining a government that has broken ranks over Palestine and Iran.

The external pressure, moreover, has a domestic twin. For two years the Spanish right has sought to bring the Sánchez government down by means other than the ballot box. A judiciary that the country’s transition to democracy left substantially intact – the same courts that pursued Catalonia’s elected leaders into prison and exile – has opened a cascade of investigations into the prime minister’s wife, his brother and his attorney general, on transparently political charges. The neo-fascist Vox party has made common cause with an international far right movement which cannot tolerate the kind of independent, mildly redistributive government that Sánchez represents. A “mass immigration crisis” is the perfect tool for presenting the government as weak, incompetent and incapable of protecting Spain’s borders.

Morocco has shamelessly exploited the poverty of its own people for its immediate geopolitical purposes, while the US, Israel and the European right are exploiting the resulting spectacle against Spain. None of them care about the lives of the young workers who died in the Mediterranean, nor about the thousands that have lost their lives in the wars the Sánchez government has stood up against.

Why the Chinese working class won’t pay for Western neoliberalism

The following article by Carlos Martinez responds to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s call at the recent EU summit for a new “Plaza Accord” to force up the value of the Chinese renminbi.

Carlos recalls how the original 1985 Plaza Accord was not a neutral rebalancing of trade but the deliberate kneecapping of an economic competitor – Washington strong-arming Japan, West Germany, France and Britain into driving down the dollar, plunging Japan into a “lost decade” of stagnation while failing to dent a US trade deficit that originated in Washington’s own model of high consumption and low savings, not in the exchange rate.

Carlos argues that China today cannot be treated as Japan was. Where Japan was a subordinate Cold War ally hosting tens of thousands of US troops; China is a sovereign socialist state with an increasingly prosperous domestic market of 1.4 billion people, an independent financial policy and a central bank that answers to no one in the West – it simply cannot be “Plaza’d”.

The article also takes aim at the language of “overcapacity”, which Carlos describes as a euphemism for European and North American industry failing to compete after nearly half a century of financialisation, privatisation and deregulation. Chinese competitiveness in electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels flows from a complete industrial system and sustained investment in technology – not from currency manipulation – and the EU’s tariffs of up to 35 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles are, he writes, “an act of self-harm disguised as self-defence”.

This article first appeared in the Morning Star.

At the recent EU summit, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared the Chinese renminbi to be undervalued by as much as 30 per cent and floated the idea of a new Plaza Accord — a co-ordinated effort to force up the value of the currency, just as Washington did to Japan in 1985.

It is worth remembering how that story ended, because the history Merz is reaching for is not the cautionary tale he imagines it to be.

The Plaza Accord was not a neutral exercise in rebalancing trade. It was the deliberate kneecapping of an economic competitor. Meeting at New York’s Plaza Hotel in September 1985, the United States strong-armed Japan, West Germany, France and Britain into driving down the dollar.

Within two years, the dollar–yen rate had fallen by half. Japanese exports were hammered, capital fled into frenzied property and stock-market speculation, and when that bubble burst at the end of the decade, Japan was plunged into a “lost decade” of stagnation that stretched into a lost generation.

Tokyo’s tormentors, meanwhile, failed to reap much from this harvest: the US goods trade deficit with Japan stood at around $46 billion in 1985 and, instead of shrinking, climbed past $55bn in both 1986 and 1987. The currency had been clobbered, but the imbalance remained.

The reason is that the imbalance never originated in the exchange rate in the first place. It grew out of the US’s own domestic economic model of high consumption and low savings, and out of the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, which compels the US to run deficits in order to supply the world with dollars. No amount of bullying Tokyo could fix a problem made in Washington.

Why could Japan be treated this way at all? Because it was never a sovereign equal but a subordinate ally — a Western outpost in East Asia, permitted to grow rich as part of the cold war project of containing communism, but never permitted to seriously challenge its benefactors. When push came to shove, hosting tens of thousands of American troops and sheltering under the US security umbrella, Tokyo had no choice but to fold. The Plaza Accord is now near-universally regarded, even by mainstream economists, as an act of economic sabotage dressed up as co-operation.

Continue reading Why the Chinese working class won’t pay for Western neoliberalism

Strategic autonomy or Stockholm syndrome: whither Europe?

The following article by Carlos Martinez, first published in the Morning Star, assesses Western Europe’s position regarding the prospects for peace in Ukraine.


Political leaders in western Europe occasionally like to talk up the need for “strategic autonomy” from the US. Emmanuel Macron in particular placed it at the centre of his foreign policy platform at the start of his presidency eight years ago, and has raised the issue several times since.

The idea of Europe exercising strategic autonomy rather than simply outsourcing its foreign policy to Washington is not new, but rather a reiteration of Charles de Gaulle’s ideas on international relations from the 1950s.

There have been a handful of noteworthy examples of its deployment in the 21st century. France, under president Jacques Chirac, and Germany, under Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, refused to participate in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The reason given is that they were not convinced by the dubious intelligence about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. The real reason is that France and Germany had no interest in pursuing the intended outcome of that war: US control of Iraq’s vast reserves of high-quality, easily extractable oil.

Despite repeated warnings from multiple US administrations (Obama, Trump and Biden), Germany participated in the planning and construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, providing cheap natural gas from Russia to central Europe via the Baltic Sea.

Again in spite of the “friendly advice” of the Obama administration, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain all signed up to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — headquartered in Beijing and first proposed by China — in 2016. This at a time when the US was several years into its Pivot to Asia.

And yet, in the US-led “post-war international order,” strategic autonomy has largely been honoured in the breach. The truth is that exercising strategic autonomy is not as easy as it sounds, given the US’s actually existing economic and military hegemony.

The centrality of the US dollar to the global economy, along with the cynical use of the IMF and World Bank to further Wall Street’s agenda, causes Western governments to think twice about defying instructions emanating from the White House.

Meanwhile, the US overwhelmingly provides the muscle for an imperialist world order that western Europe — along with Japan, Canada and Australia — benefits from, albeit not to the same degree as the US itself.

“McDonald’s cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas,” and ultimately the US’s nuclear arsenal, Nato, hundreds of overseas military bases and an elaborate system of troop and weapons deployments around the world all have their role to play in maintaining the flow of profits from periphery to metropole.

As such, the privileging of US economic and strategic interests is built into the imperialist world system. Faced, therefore, with the choice of embracing the multipolar trajectory or seeking shelter under an increasingly leaky and fragile US hegemonic umbrella, Europe has tended towards the latter.

The examples are numerous. Britain’s involvement in Aukus; French and British enthusiasm for the war of regime change against Libya; European imposition of sanctions against China on entirely fictional charges of human rights abuses in Xinjiang — to name but a few. But rarely has this toxic relationship been more evident than with Europe’s total subservience in Nato’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.

This is a war from which the US has benefited and Europe has suffered in equal measure. The US military-industrial complex has — to coin a phrase — made a killing. Shareholders in the US fracking industry are sitting pretty, while European pensioners shiver their way through another long winter of high energy prices resulting from sanctions on Russian natural gas. All in the name of a disastrous and entirely unnecessary conflict in which an estimated million people have lost their lives.

Now all of a sudden, Donald Trump is back and a new tune is playing on the Pentagon speakers. Team Trump has clearly come to the conclusion that, rather than trying to wage a new cold war on multiple fronts, it would be better for the US to build a rapprochement with Russia and consolidate forces against China, by now the world’s largest economy in purchasing power parity terms, the major trading partner of two-thirds of the world’s countries, and the leading force in the multipolar trajectory.

For the US, extricating itself from an unwinnable war in Ukraine is an essential first step down this road. But Europe finds itself in a quandary. On the one hand, a withdrawal from Ukraine that Starmer and Macron can put down to a whimsical and capricious White House resident could be just what the doctor ordered.

On the other hand, it’s painful for London, Paris and Berlin to have their subordinate role in the empire hierarchy so brutally exposed. Meanwhile, if Trump’s turn to China means that Britain, France and Germany are forced to “decouple” from China and significantly reduce trade and investment, that will likely have an even more deleterious effect on their economies than the sanctions on Russia.

All in all, now would be an excellent time for Europe to seriously develop its strategic autonomy; to accept that the world is moving in the direction of multilateralism and sovereignty; to accept that imperialism is in decline; and to develop positive and mutually beneficial relations with China, with Russia, with Iran, with the countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific. Such a programme is by no means easy, but it is obviously necessary.

Unfortunately, this is not the way things are going. Starmer, Macron, Merz and Meloni, instead of adapting to a shifting reality, are desperately (“pathetically” is perhaps more precise) trying to persuade Trump to get the band back together and recommit to the Ukraine war. The endlessly hawkish Starmer, channelling Tony Blair and George W Bush, has proposed a “coalition of the willing” to “bring a durable peace” to Ukraine by means of, well, keeping the war going as long as possible.

He has even offered British “boots on the ground and planes in the air.” Given Russia’s oft-stated and not-unreasonable position that it will never accede to Nato troops in Ukraine, any such British deployment would likely look more like “planes on the ground and boots in the air.”

Meanwhile, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen says that “Europe urgently needs to rearm and member states must be given the fiscal space to carry out a surge in defence spending.” That is, European workers must accept ever-deeper austerity in order to help out our arms manufacturers and defend our democracy from Big, Bad Vlad.

If Europe continues down this treacherous path, the continent will see further decline, poverty, inequality, instability and conflict, inevitably accompanied by racist scapegoating and the rise of the far right. Working-class and oppressed communities should ask themselves whether they accept such a destiny.