Brazilians go to the polls on 4 October in an election pitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against the far-right Flávio Bolsonaro, with the polls showing a technical tie. In the following article, Carlos Martinez and Sara Vivacqua set out why this is the election in the Americas that matters most to Washington – and the one it has worked hardest to influence.
They document the extent of US interference – from tariffs, sanctions and terrorist designations to suspicions of foreign money reaching the Bolsonaro campaign – and situate it within the ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine, which seeks to consolidate the Americas as a secure rear base for a longer confrontation with China. Against this backdrop, they argue, a Lula victory would show the whole of the Global South that such pressure can be faced down.
This article was first published in the Morning Star.
Brazilians go to the polls this weekend in what will be a crucial election for the country and the wider region. The contest pits the incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against the far-right Flávio Bolsonaro – son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence, convicted of plotting a coup to overturn the result of the 2022 election.
Of all the elections in the Americas this year, this is the one whose outcome matters most to Washington – and the one it has worked hardest to influence. Brazil – a top-ten economy, a founder of BRICS and a driver of the multipolar order – is the last large country in South America that, under Lula, refuses to fall in line with Washington. It is one of the final pieces, and also a potential turning point, in Washington’s strategy for the capture of the Americas.
“Brazilian democracy belongs to Brazilians. Brazil will remain a sovereign country.”
In his speech at the opening of the 81st United Nations General Assembly on 22 September, Lula denounced foreign interference in the region’s elections and brought it under international scrutiny, in an attempt to prevent an institutional rupture before it could materialise.
Continue reading What is at stake in Brazil’s election